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ETA Hot Topic Hub · AI Power

Electricity is now the limit on AI growth

Chips are no longer the scarcest input for AI. Power, grid connections and community consent are. ETA tracks data center load growth, interconnection rules, who pays for upgrades, new generation deals and the local fights shaping where AI capacity gets built.

Updated November 8, 2026 · Stats checked weekly, stories added daily

17%Growth in global data center electricity use in 2025, vs 3% for all electricity demand (IEA)Source: Growth in global data center electricity use in 2025, vs 3% for all electricity demand (IEA)
6.8 GWShortfall vs reliability requirement in PJM's 2028/29 capacity auction, which cleared at the price capSource: Shortfall vs reliability requirement in PJM's 2028/29 capacity auction, which cleared at the price cap
474 GWTexas large-load queue under ERCOT audit in 2026, more than five times the grid's all-time peakSource: Texas large-load queue under ERCOT audit in 2026, more than five times the grid's all-time peak
41Local data center ballot measures in 10 states on Nov. 3, 2026; Ohio alone had 21Source: Local data center ballot measures in 10 states on Nov. 3, 2026; Ohio alone had 21
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FAQ

Common questions

How much electricity will AI data centers use?

The IEA reports data center electricity use rose 17% in 2025 and expects it to double by 2030, with AI-focused facilities roughly tripling. For the US, EPRI projects data centers could reach 9% to 17% of electricity demand in 2030. Forecasts carry real uncertainty: Grid Strategies found utility forecasts filed with FERC ran about 40% above credible industry projections.

Who pays for the grid upgrades data centers need?

That is the central fight. In June 2026 FERC ordered six grid operators to show how they will prevent cost shifts onto other customers, while affirming that states keep authority over retail sales and siting. States are adopting large-load tariffs with minimum contract terms, collateral and exit fees, and Florida now requires data centers over 50 MW to cover the full cost of grid connection.

What is flexible or curtailable AI load?

It means a data center agrees to reduce or shift power use during grid stress in exchange for faster or cheaper connection. Google has built 1 GW of demand response into contracts with utilities including Indiana Michigan Power, TVA and DTE Energy. FERC has said flexibility can avoid costly transmission build-out, though in October it rejected PJM's specific curtail-first design as intruding on state authority.

Why are communities voting to restrict data centers?

Concerns about power bills, land, water and local control have turned siting into a ballot issue. On Nov. 3, 2026, voters decided 41 local data center measures in 10 states, with results nearly unanimous for restrictions. A May 2026 Heatmap poll cited by Utility Dive found 71% of Americans would oppose a data center built nearby.

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